Buzzkill Without Kirill

Kirill Kaprizov’s goal in the Wild’s 4-3 victory over the Chicago Blackhawks on Dec. 23 sent him into the NHL’s Christmas break near the top of the league’s scoring leaders with 23 goals and 50 points in 34 games. The star winger was among the leading candidates for the Hart Trophy, which goes to the NHL’s MVP, and was a primary reason an overachieving Wild team was 21-10-4.

It was a bit of a surprise when Kaprizov didn’t make the trip to Dallas for the Wild’s first game after the break because of a lower-body injury but the word was it was a day-to-day situation. He would be fine and back before long.

More than two months later, Kaprizov has played in only three games since exiting the lineup. He has been seen a few times in the bowels of Xcel Energy Center catching up with fellow Russian players after games but that’s been it.

Those last three appearances by Kaprizov came in late January and were followed by the announcement that he would undergo surgery. The original timeline for his absence was four to six weeks. In late February, Wild general manager Bill Guerin said Kaprizov would be out for an undetermined amount of time.

So what’s wrong with Kaprizov? The Wild have declined to provide specifics other than Guerin saying he expects Kaprizov back before the end of the regular season. Given how the situation has unfolded it’s probably best to assume any timetable put on Kaprizov’s return is nothing more than a hopeful guess.

Kaprizov’s importance to the Wild never has been in question, but his absence has enabled the team, its fans and Kaprizov’s representatives to see just how futile the Wild are in the goal-scoring department without him.

That has been on full display since the team’s return from the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off. The Wild have averaged two goals per game in going 5-6-1 since Feb. 22. They scored four goals in victories over Detroit and Seattle but have been held to one goal five times.

Minnesota rallied for a 3-1 win over the Los Angeles Kings on Monday night at Xcel Energy Center, but two of the goals came on the power play and the last one was into an empty net.

He was the Wild’s offense
How bad is it?

Kaprizov’s 23 goals in 37 games still lead the Wild and are two more than Matt Boldy and Marco Rossi have produced in 68 games apiece. Kaprizov’s 52 points trail Rossi by one and Boldy’s team-leading total by four.

Kaprizov wasn’t just an important part of the Wild’s offense, he was the offense. It doesn’t help that the Wild have battled injuries all season — just as they did a year ago. Joel Eriksson Ek, the team’s best center, has missed the past 11 games and 25 overall, and defenseman Jonas Brodin has missed the past eight games and 30 overall.

The Wild’s 19-5-4 start helped to catapult them to the top of the NHL standings in early December and likely created such a cushion that they are going to make the playoffs as a wild card.

But this has become a grind and, John Hynes’ relentless positivity aside, it’s difficult to believe the Wild are going to accomplish anything without No. 97.

What makes this situation even more interesting is that Kaprizov is eligible for a contract extension on July 1. He will enter the final season of his five-year, $45 million contract in 2025-26 and can sign for a maximum of eight years with the Wild this summer. If he plays out his contract, he will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2026.

Kaprizov’s timing could not be better. The NHL informed clubs in late January that its salary cap would rise by $7.5 million to $95.5 million in 2025-26 before increasing to a projected $104 million in 2026-27 and $113.5 million the following season. These are substantial increases for a cap that remained flat for several years after the pandemic.

The Wild will benefit from the fact that the dead cap hits from the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter will go from $14.8 million combined to $1.7 million next season, but a good chunk of that extra money will have to be used to keep Kaprizov.

At what price?

Wild owner Craig Leipold said before the regular season that, “nobody will offer (Kaprizov) more money than us, or longer,” before adding, “all we have to do is prove to him that we want to win.”

Kaprizov’s injury should be a concern
After missing the playoffs last season, that’s what the Wild were doing with Kaprizov, but he has had plenty of time to watch his teammates struggle to score goals without him. It’s fair to wonder if Kaprizov will question whether the Wild adding a free agent, such as Colorado’s Brock Nelson or Vancouver’s Brock Boeser, will be enough to give him a real chance at a Stanley Cup.

Despite his boyish looks, Kaprizov isn’t a kid. He didn’t arrive in Minnesota until his age 23 season and will turn 28 on April 26. If Kaprizov does sign an extension this summer, how much might his price have increased because of his absence?

The 31 games Kaprizov has missed are a career high. He sat out 15 games near the end of the regular season in 2022-23 after Winnipeg’s Logan Stanley crumpled him to the ice. In his three others seasons with the Wild, Kaprizov has missed a combined nine games.

Kaprizov’s unknown injury has to be a concern for the Wild brass that wants to make him a very rich man but they are in no position to balk. He is fourth in franchise history with 183 goals in 315 games, fifth with 382 points and second in power play goals with 61.

Kaprizov’s return undoubtedly would provide a significant boost to the Wild’s playoff hopes, not to mention the morale of a team whose confidence is shaken. But when might that happen — if it happens at all?

“You guys have been asking me nonstop about this,” Guerin said shortly before the March 7 trade deadline. “I just don’t know. … There’s no exact science. I can’t tell you because what I tell you today might be different tomorrow. Things change constantly. I’m not going to say, ‘Oh, he’s going to be back 17 days from now’ and he’s not back 17 days from now, you guys are going to be like ‘What happened?’ So, I don’t know. I just don’t know.”

What Guerin does know is that Kaprizov’s value increases with each game the Wild fail to bury the puck in the net.